Select a stream reach on this map and then, on the other tabs, explore predicted macroinvertebrate assemblages of the reach, under current (2006) conditions, and following potential changes to forest cover, urban stormwater impacts, and climate.
The 'change forest cover' tab allows you to map newly forested or deforested areas, to estimate change in the predictor variable 'attenuated forest cover'.
On the 'predicted assemblage change' tab, you can alter values of attenuated forest cover, attenuated imperviousness (urban stormwater impacts), and rainfall and temperature according to climate-change predictions, and predict resulting changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages.
The model v data tab compares the model predictions to observed data.
(Just drag this panel away if it is in the way.)





48-month linearly-weighted antecedent discharge was calculated from gridded monthly runoff data from The Australian Water Availability Project using methods detailed in Walsh (manuscript in review), but broadly consistent with the methods used by Walsh and Webb (2013). See the final tab (Model [predicted] v Data [observed]) for an illustration of how this variable varied over time at the chosen site.
*Grace Detailed-GIS Services. 2012. Directly connected imperviousness compilation for Melbourne Water selected catchments. Report prepared for Melbourne Water, Melbourne.
#Bureau of Meteorology. 2011. Australian hydrological geospatial fabric (geofabric) product guide. Version 2.0 – November 2011. Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra.
Ecological condition [NB: this can take a while to plot predictions the first time, but will be quicker after that]

Four indicators based macroinvertebrate families found in a stream reach, as predicted by models similar to adapted from those of Walsh and Webb (2013, 2016)1

1Walsh, C.J. and Webb, J.A. (2013).   Predicting stream macroinvertebrate assemblage composition as a function of land use, physiography and climate: a guide for strategic planning for river and water management in the Melbourne Water management region.  Melbourne Waterway Protection and Restoration Science-Practice Partnership Report 13-1. Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne. October 2013.
Walsh, C.J. & Webb, J.A. (2016) Interactive effects of urban stormwater drainage, land clearance, and flow regime on stream macroinvertebrate assemblages across a large metropolitan region. Freshwater Science, 35, 324-339. LUMaR is an index described by Walsh (manuscript in review) combining the Observed:Expected approach of RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS indices and the sensitivity grades of indices such as SIGNAL.  SIGNAL and SIGNAL2 are the average sensitivity grade of the families present at a site, with families sensitive to disturbance given high grades (a maximum of 10) and tolerant families given lower grades (a minimum of 1) (SIGNAL, Chessman (1995 Aust J Ecol 20: 122. SIGNAL2, Chessman 2003 Mar Freshw Res 95–103).  Number of sensitive families is to at least one human impact (Walsh in review: see also Sensitivity in the table above): all but all but 6 families were classed as sensitive, as they showed negative association with one or both of attenuated imperviousness or attenuated forest cover.

Here are two maps of forest cover in the catchment upstream of the reach you have chosen. If the catchment is big, the maps only show that part of the catchment that is 6 river-km upstream of the reach (beyond that, forest cover is predicted to have almost no effect on the macroinvertebrates in this reach).
You can add or remove forest cover from areas in the catchment by clicking around those areas in the map on the LEFT and pressing the appropriate buttons below after you finish outlining each area. (NB. the axes of the map are Map Grid of Australia 1994 coordinates in metres)
When you finish drawing each area, the map on the right will redraw and recalculate "attenuated forest cover (AF)" that the models use to predict macroinvertebrate distributions.
To better understand what is going on, you can also choose to look at the underlying weighting patterns that are used to calculate AF.

Apply changes to any of A (attenuated forest cover, AF), B (urban development, attenuated imperviousness AI), or C (climate) in the panel of the left.

To get a quick indication of a) how SIGNAL score in this reach (given the sample details entered on 'the 2006 condition' tab, and the climate scenario entered on this tab) is predicted to vary with AI and AF, and b) over what ranges of AI and AF the models are able to make predictions, click this button.

LUMaR and family composition take longer to calculate, and might respond differently.
To calculate the full predicted changes in this reach compared to 2006 condition, press this button. (This takes 15-30 s.)

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